By Jeff King
In just a few days, the 2015 Hurricane Season will begin here in the Central Pacific Ocean. In fact, today Maui weather guru Glenn James is on O’ahu attending a briefing on the storm outlook for this season.
However, there are two systems already catching the eyes of meteorologists:
1. A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms well east of the circulation center. Upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable today and significant development of this system is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days..low…10 percent
2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent
Later today, the National Weather service is expected to release the long-range outlook for the Pacific Hurricane Season. For storms that form in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center‘s area of responsibility, encompassing the area between 140°W and the International Date Line, all names are used in a series of four rotating lists. The next four names slated for use are Ela, Halola, Iune and Kilo.
The first Pacific-wide forecast for the 2015 season was released on April 10. the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued its first outlook for the Pacific hurricane season, expecting a total of nineteen named storms, eleven hurricanes and four major hurricanes